This post is for the "sans the law" bit of the blog. Pakistan, which has been having a major problem with Taliban (Pakistan branch) in it's North-western areas, is about to take a drastic step. They are about to give tens of thousands of arms albeit small arms to the tens of thousands of tribals in order to get them to fight the Taliban.
What circumstances can bring a country to do this? (Not that we aren't doing this - Salwa Judum, SULFA to name a couple). Large areas of Pakistan are today in the control of the Militants who Pakistan claims are foreigners. USA claims that these militants attack afghanistan from their base in Pakistan and Pakistan claims that carry out attacks in Pakistan from their bases in Afghanistan. USA bombs what it thinks are bunkers of militants in Pakistan and some in Pakistan claim that those were homes of civilian Pakistanis. The militants are also carrying out increasingly bold terrorist attacks (you've heard of this happening somewhere else too?) in other parts of Pakistan (Marriot hotel was just a big one but there are a couple of small ones every week) and have the Pakistanis spending insane amounts on security for their widower president and other VIPs.
Now it would appear that arming the tribals would actually go a long way in the war against the militants. But the problem with letting such a huge quantity of fire arms into such a volatile area and into the hands of any non-state agency is an extremely dangerous thing to do. And it is in fact very similar to the US supplying the Mujahideen arms to help them defeat the Soviets. it wouldn't surprise me one bit if a lot of these AK47s are seen in the hands of some militant outfit attacking the people who gave it to them in the first place. The US repeating their mistake seems to in support of it completely.
To add to their woes, Pakistan is steeped in a major financial crisis and on the verge of bankruptcy which combined with a major food crisis and a power supply shortage might destabilize the country.
Having been brought up in a environment where I'm constantly bombarded with stories (some from eye witnesses) of the great wars we've fought with the Pakistanis (Kargil, Bangladesh, Jo-burg Wanderers.... ) there is some inclination to beleive we should not be too concerned about the troubles that Pakistan is facing. Simple thinking would lead one to beleive that if Pakistan has no money it will mean a lot terrorists from across the border etc. etc. But no. This is not "Pakistan has no money to throw around". This is Pakistan is going to have "No money at all". The insurgency doesn't seem to be having this problem. Taliban pays its mercenaries about as much as a junior associate at a Indian law firm (hint hint). This could be dangerous for us. Though Maulana Fazlullah taking over Pakistan seems remote at this point, it is very well possible that he pushes some far right party with trigger happy leaders into power in Pakistan. And of course, in Pakistan there is more than one way to get Power. And a leader like that in control of Pakistan's nuclear warheads is something we all should lose sleep over. When we have to live with an enemy so powerful, we have to ensure that it is controlled by a level headed, responsible government, that does not disregard the safety of it's own people.
It is for India to take a bold step now and help Pakistan out of this mess. Of course, India need not give billions of dollars in aid to Pakistan as they are asking US and Saudi Arabia to do (and getting nos). We can perhaps make a staggered loan to Pakistan and guarantee part of their public debt (do sovereigns need outside guarantees for their public debts? apparently the ones in really bad shape can do with some) allowing them some breathing liquidity. The staggered debt also means that we will have some leverage to get some of our own things which we have been wanting Pakistan to do (like hold the ISI on a tight leash, fishermen in Sir Creek etc.).
And as for Pakistan and its tribal lashkars who want to fight, perhaps Pakistan army can hire them on a contract basis of some sort (Like the Short service comissions we have here) and have them fight the militants as Pakistani soldiers. This way the ammo stays in safe hands (relatively safe hands anyway) and they get their orders from a civilised government.
The India-supporting-Pakistan plan however, is never going to see the light of dayas it has too many vested interests going against it. Several political leaders on both sides of the border would stand to lose their base if Pakistan/India wasn't an enemy anymore.
What circumstances can bring a country to do this? (Not that we aren't doing this - Salwa Judum, SULFA to name a couple). Large areas of Pakistan are today in the control of the Militants who Pakistan claims are foreigners. USA claims that these militants attack afghanistan from their base in Pakistan and Pakistan claims that carry out attacks in Pakistan from their bases in Afghanistan. USA bombs what it thinks are bunkers of militants in Pakistan and some in Pakistan claim that those were homes of civilian Pakistanis. The militants are also carrying out increasingly bold terrorist attacks (you've heard of this happening somewhere else too?) in other parts of Pakistan (Marriot hotel was just a big one but there are a couple of small ones every week) and have the Pakistanis spending insane amounts on security for their widower president and other VIPs.
Now it would appear that arming the tribals would actually go a long way in the war against the militants. But the problem with letting such a huge quantity of fire arms into such a volatile area and into the hands of any non-state agency is an extremely dangerous thing to do. And it is in fact very similar to the US supplying the Mujahideen arms to help them defeat the Soviets. it wouldn't surprise me one bit if a lot of these AK47s are seen in the hands of some militant outfit attacking the people who gave it to them in the first place. The US repeating their mistake seems to in support of it completely.
To add to their woes, Pakistan is steeped in a major financial crisis and on the verge of bankruptcy which combined with a major food crisis and a power supply shortage might destabilize the country.
Having been brought up in a environment where I'm constantly bombarded with stories (some from eye witnesses) of the great wars we've fought with the Pakistanis (Kargil, Bangladesh, Jo-burg Wanderers.... ) there is some inclination to beleive we should not be too concerned about the troubles that Pakistan is facing. Simple thinking would lead one to beleive that if Pakistan has no money it will mean a lot terrorists from across the border etc. etc. But no. This is not "Pakistan has no money to throw around". This is Pakistan is going to have "No money at all". The insurgency doesn't seem to be having this problem. Taliban pays its mercenaries about as much as a junior associate at a Indian law firm (hint hint). This could be dangerous for us. Though Maulana Fazlullah taking over Pakistan seems remote at this point, it is very well possible that he pushes some far right party with trigger happy leaders into power in Pakistan. And of course, in Pakistan there is more than one way to get Power. And a leader like that in control of Pakistan's nuclear warheads is something we all should lose sleep over. When we have to live with an enemy so powerful, we have to ensure that it is controlled by a level headed, responsible government, that does not disregard the safety of it's own people.
It is for India to take a bold step now and help Pakistan out of this mess. Of course, India need not give billions of dollars in aid to Pakistan as they are asking US and Saudi Arabia to do (and getting nos). We can perhaps make a staggered loan to Pakistan and guarantee part of their public debt (do sovereigns need outside guarantees for their public debts? apparently the ones in really bad shape can do with some) allowing them some breathing liquidity. The staggered debt also means that we will have some leverage to get some of our own things which we have been wanting Pakistan to do (like hold the ISI on a tight leash, fishermen in Sir Creek etc.).
And as for Pakistan and its tribal lashkars who want to fight, perhaps Pakistan army can hire them on a contract basis of some sort (Like the Short service comissions we have here) and have them fight the militants as Pakistani soldiers. This way the ammo stays in safe hands (relatively safe hands anyway) and they get their orders from a civilised government.
The India-supporting-Pakistan plan however, is never going to see the light of dayas it has too many vested interests going against it. Several political leaders on both sides of the border would stand to lose their base if Pakistan/India wasn't an enemy anymore.
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